New Delhi: In a big relief for farmers and people battling sweltering heat, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) Tuesday announced that the country will witness normal rainfall during the southwest monsoon season (from June to September).
“It is likely to be 96 per cent (with an error margin of 5 per cent) of the long-period average of roughly 87 cm,” M Ravichandran, Secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences said at a press conference in national capital New Delhi.
The forecast of normal rainfall during the southwest monsoon season comes as IMD sees a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and a lower snow cover over the northern hemisphere which are likely to counter the evolving El Nino conditions.
There is a 67 per cent probability of normal to above-normal rainfall, said M Mohapatra, Director General of Meteorology, IMD.
He said the snow-covered area over the northern hemisphere and Eurasia was below normal from December 2022 to March 2023. A lower snow cover over the northern hemisphere is considered favourable for the subsequent southwest monsoon rainfall over India.
“If at all there is any adverse impact due to the evolving El Nino conditions during the monsoon season, it is likely to be countered by the favourable impact of a positive IOD and the lower snow cover over the northern hemisphere,” Mohapatra said.
IMD rainfall forecast
Parts of northwest India, west-central and northeast regions are predicted to receive normal to below-normal rainfall during the southwest monsoon season, Mohapatra said.
“Normal rainfall is likely over many parts of the peninsular region, adjoining the east-central, east, northeast areas and some parts of northwest India,” he said.
The Met department head said El Nino conditions are likely to develop during the monsoon season and its impact may be felt in the second half.
He, however, said that not all El Nino years are bad monsoon years and that 40 per cent of the El Nino years in the past (1951-2022) received normal to above-normal monsoon rainfall.
El Nino and its association with monsoon
El Nino is the warming of the waters of the Pacific Ocean near South America. It is associated with weakening of monsoon winds and less rainfall in India.
Meanwhile, the IOD is defined by the difference in the sea surface temperatures between the western parts of the Indian Ocean near Africa and the eastern parts of the ocean near Indonesia.
A positive IOD is considered good for the Indian monsoon.
Monsoon in India
Starting 2019, India has witnessed four consecutive years of normal and above-normal rains during the monsoon season.
In 2019 monsoon season, the country received 971.8 mm of rainfall, 961.4 mm in 2020, 874.5 mm in 2021 and 924.8 mm in 2022, IMD’s data said.
The country recorded 804.1 mm of precipitation in the season in 2018, 845.9 mm in 2017, 864.4 mm in 2016 and 765.8 mm in 2015.
With inputs from PTI
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