Summer is coming. And it’s going to be a deadly one. India is likely to experience heatwaves between March and May and central and northern states will be the worst hit. If February was not bad enough, March will be warmer. India recorded its hottest February in more than a century.
What are the predictions?
In the next three months, India will be hit by heatwaves, especially in the key wheat-producing central and northern states, the weather office said on Tuesday. Haryana, Punjab, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh are the country’s major wheat producers.
There is an “enhanced probability of occurrence of a heatwave” during the March to May season over many regions of central and adjoining northwest India, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted.
According to SC Bhan, a senior scientist at IMD, there is certainly a likelihood of heatwaves in March, especially in central India, but it is relatively “low”. Rainfall is also expected to be below normal in March for Northwest India and adjoining parts of Central India.
In Delhi, which faced a hot summer, temperatures will increase further in the first week of March. However, on Wednesday, the first day of the month, the National Capital Region (NCR) woke up rain and dust storm. According to a local report, there might not be a significant temperature change but the sky is expected to remain cloudy. It provided some relief from the unforgiving February heat.
Time for parts of Delhi and NCR to get lucky!
•Very scattered short spell of light-moderate rain is expected in parts of Ghaziabad, Noida, Delhi while Gurgaon, Faridabad and South Delhi shall receive a short intense spell with thunder#DelhiRains pic.twitter.com/4L8AL5IXoW
— IndiaMetSky Weather (@indiametsky) February 28, 2023
From 2 March, the maximum temperature is expected to hover around 33 degrees Celsius, which is two notches higher than the temperature recorded recently.
The IMD has said that it would start providing colour-coded warnings for heatwaves in the country from 1 March.
Also read: Heat Fury in February: Is India seeing an early summer?
How will the heatwave affect India?
India experienced a severe heatwave last summer and this year could be no different.
A heatwave for the second straight year could dent the production of wheat, rapeseed and chickpeas, and complicate the government’s efforts to bring down food inflation, reports Reuters.
India is the second-biggest producer of wheat after China. And a prolonged heatwave is not good news. Lower output of wheat will once again force the country to curb exports like it did last year.
A warm March hurt the winter wheat crop in 2022 and to avoid a repeat of last year the government has set up an inter-ministerial committee. Wheat is sensitive to heat stress and even a percentage rise in temperature can affect yield.
Predicting a hotter-than-normal march, private weather tracker Skymet said that “persistent dry and hot weather conditions” would hurt rabi crops in general and the yield of wheat over the northern and central parts of the country in particular.
Cereal inflation is a key driver of the consumer price index. Any dip in rabi and wheat production or the quality of these staple grains could make it difficult to curb generalised price pressures on the economy, says a report in The Financial Express.
“Wheat crop has already been witnessing stress due to higher temperature. Warmer March would definitely lead to yield loss," said a Mumbai-based dealer with a global trade house.
India plants wheat once a year in October and November with harvesting starting in March.
High temperatures in large parts of India in February pushed electricity demands to near-record levels. Peak demand for electricity touched 211 gigawatts in January, close to an all-time high last summer when heavy industry roared back from pandemic curbs and the population contended with sweltering conditions that saw a 122-year-old heat record breached, according to a report in Bloomberg.
Also read: Explained: How climate change is making extreme heatwave 100 times more likely in India
Now with temperatures expected to soar, consumption is expected to go up. With irrigation pumps and air conditioners cranked up, there will be a strain on the country’s energy network, the report says. The electricity demand could set a new high of 229 gigawatts in April, according to India’s power ministry.
As energy consumption rises, the demand for fossil fuels goes up and hydropower resources dry up. To avoid blackouts, power plants that run on imported coal will run at full capacity during the summer months.
Last March was the hottest in over a century in the Indian subcontinent and it resulted in at least 90 deaths in India and Pakistan. This year could be as deadly.
How bad was February?
February 2023 was one of the warmest in over a century. In northwest India, February marks the end of winter and the beginning of spring with maximum temperatures hovering around 20 degrees Celsius or a little above.
The maximum temperatures began to rise in mid-February with many parts of west and northwest India recording temperatures that are 5 to 10 degrees Celsius above normal. The warming seemed to be as bad, if not worse, than the conditions in 2022, when much of India skipped the spring season entirely, according to a report in Hindustan Times.
India reported the warmest February this year since 1877 with average maximum temperatures touching 29.54 degrees celsius, the weather office said on Tuesday while linking it with global warming. The country received 68 per cent lower rainfall than normal in February, the weather office said.
The coming months are expected to be worse and hence the government has issued a detailed advisory.
Also read: Explained: What is a heatwave and what does it do to your body?
What does the advisory say?
The government has listed dos and don’ts as the country braces for a severe heatwave, urging the general population to stay hydrated, covered and indoors as much as possible. It has asked people to avoid high-protein food and tea.
According to experts, proteins are not easy to digest. “… when combined with heat and dehydration, they may make you feel uneasy and even ill,” Pooja Makhija, celebrity nutritionist, and Govindrajan, head of research and development, SugarFree, told NDTV.
“Avoid alcohol, tea, coffee and carbonated soft drinks or drinks with large amount of sugar as these actually, lead to loss of more body fluid or may cause stomach cramps,” the says advisory. ORS (oral hydration solution) and homemade drinks like lemon water, buttermilk, lassi and fruit juices with added salt are recommended.
The advisory says people should wear loose cotton garments and cover their heads when exposed to direct sunlight. Getting out in the sun, especially between noon and 3 pm should be avoided. People should not go out barefoot and outdoor activities should be planned during the cooler parts of the day.
The government has said that Indians should immediately call on 108/102 if they find someone with a high body temperature and is either unconscious, confused or has stopped sweating.
With inputs from agencies
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