The monsoons have wreaked havoc in Central and West India, back to back low pressure areas from the Bay of Bengal and active offshore trough kept the monsoon rain in the vigorous stage over Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Rajasthan in the past week.
Despite the fact that North West and North East India are struggling to record good rains so far in July, pan-India Monsoon is normal and covers all the rainfall deficiency in the past two weeks due to excessive rains in the central and southern peninsula of the country.
As per IMD data, total monsoon seasonal rains in India from 1 June till 16 July:
• India as a whole recorded a total of 344.1mm rainfall against the average of 304.2mm, a departure from normal Stands at +13%, it was at +5% during last Saturday, a pan-India growth of +8% is observed this week.
• Southern Peninsula: Actual 358.4mm against the average of 262.3mm, +37% departure from normal.
• East and North East India: Actual 488.7mm against the average of 554.3mm, -12% departure from normal.
• North West India: Actual 165.4mm against the average of 176.6mm, -6% departure from normal.
• Central India: Actual 430.4mm against the average of 326.8mm, +32% departure from normal.
If we look at the subdivision-wise numbers in every region, Telangana recorded Large Excess rains of 531.2mm against the normal of 236.3mm, the departure from normal stands at +125%, the highest anomaly in the country.
East Uttar Pradesh is the worst performing subdivision in India with only 78.4mm against the normal of 254.0mm, the departure from normal stands at -69%, East Uttar Pradesh is the only subdivision in India with large deficit rains. Followed by West Uttar Pradesh at -69%, Jharkhand -49%, Gangetic West Bengal -46%, Bihar at -44% seasonal rainfall anomaly.
The monsoon remained active over the Central parts of India due to the inland movement of back-to-back low-pressure areas keeping the monsoon axis south of its normal position. Whenever the monsoon trough stays over Central India for a longer period, good rains remain absent from North and North East, prevailing easterlies keep the weather sultry or uncomfortable and rains are mainly patchy in nature which is experienced by the northern regions in the first fortnight of July.
Friday onwards the western arm of the monsoon axis started shifting northwards resulting in rainfall over states of North India. On Friday morning Ganganagar in Rajasthan recorded whopping 224mm rainfall in the span of 24 hours till 8:30 am breaking the July monthly all-time record.
The city recorded a total of 278mm rainfall in the last two days.
The seasonal June-September average rainfall in Sriganganagar is 236.8mm only. Till Sunday morning good rains have been experienced in many parts.
Rainfall data ending 8:30am on 17 July:
Mohali -- 88mm
Patiala -- 72mm
Panchkula -- 60.5mm
Chandigarh -- 52mm
Rohtak -- 33.2mm
Sirsa -- 32mm
Delhi -- 30mm
Ludhiana -- 28mm
Gurgaon -- 20mm
Meerut -- 19mm
Kurukshetra -- 18mm
Jaipur -- 18mm
Bareilly -- 17mm
Ajmer -- 14mm
Lucknow -- 9mm
A fresh low-pressure area brewed in Bay of Bengal and now having impact over various parts of Central India. Moderate to heavy rains is observed in many parts of Chhattisgarh, Odisha and East Madhya Pradesh. The rainfall data ending 8:30 am on Sunday morning:
Phulbani -- 183.4mm
Puri -- 158.5mm
Nayagarh -- 121mm
Koraput -- 117.5mm
Kendrapada -- 89.4mm
Rewa -- 63.8mm
Pendra Road -- 49.0mm
Raipur Airport -- 38.8mm
Bilaspur -- 30.6mm
Raipur City -- 27.8mm
Damoh -- 21mm
The current weather synopsis in India as per Indian Meteorological Department:
The depression over Northeast Arabian Sea off Saurashtra and Kutch coasts moved northwestwards
and laid centered at 0530 hours IST on 17 July, 2022 over the same region near latitude 22.8°N and longitude 68.5°E, about 170 km west-northwest of Porbandar (Gujarat), 70 km west-northwest of Okha (Gujarat), 70 km south-southwest of Naliya (Gujarat) and 270 km south-southeast of Karachi (Pakistan). It is very likely to move west-northwestwards towards Oman coast across the northwest Arabian Sea during next 48 hours.
The Low Pressure Area over Northwest Bay of Bengal off north Odisha-West Bengal Coasts with
the associated cyclonic circulation extending upto 7.6 km above mean sea level persists.
The monsoon trough now passes through Depression over Northeast Arabian Sea off Saurashtra coast, Deesa, Sagar, Raipur, centre of Low-Pressure Area over Northwest Bay of Bengal off north
Odisha-West Bengal Coasts and thence south eastwards to East Central Bay of Bengal and extends upto 1.5 km above mean sea level.
The Western Disturbance is a trough in middle tropospheric westerlies with its axis at 5.8 km above
mean sea level roughly along Long. 72°E & to the north of Lat.32°N persists.
The off-shore trough at mean sea level from Gujarat coast to Maharashtra coast persists.
All India forecast till 23 July 2022:
North India
The low-pressure area over Central - East India will keep moving West and weaken gradually, it will provide a scope for the monsoon axis to shift northwards towards foothills of Himalayas this week. As the monsoon trough shifts North it will ensure a cloudy and rainy week ahead for North India plains and Himalayas.
Under the direct impact of monsoon trough, rains are expected to be very active over Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh and Jammu for next five to six days. The interaction of easterlies from Bay of Bengal and South Westerly from Arabian sea will be more effective over himalayan terrains and may result in heavy to very heavy rains between 19 to 23 July.
Travelling and other outdoor activities under such weather conditions are risky and life threatening one should avoid travelling to the hill stations as landslides are very common. The locals should stay cautious.
At the same time many parts of Rajasthan, Haryana, Delhi NCR, Chandigarh and Punjab experience good rains.
The East and Central Uttar Pradesh is on verge of drought like conditions. As the trough moves North there will be gradual increase in rainfall over the region during 19 to 23 July, the rainfall deficiency may reduce up to some extent but the journey towards normal rains is still difficult to achieve in this spell.
Expected precipitation accumulation till 23 July:
• Uttarakhand -- 210 mm
• Himachal Pradesh -- 160mm
• Jammu and Kashmir -- 110mm
• Rajasthan -- 110mm
• Uttar Pradesh -- 100mm
• Haryana -- 70mm
• Delhi NCR -- 60mm
• Punjab -- 50mm
Central India
The existing low pressure area over Odisha will keep on moving Westwards, under the influence of the weather system heavy rains are expected in many parts of South Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, and Gujarat during 17 to 21 July.
Over the weekend Mumbai rains have decreased significantly, over the coming week it is expected to increase but the intensity won't be very high, mainly light to moderate rains will be observed over the financial capital throughout next week.
Meanwhile the central parts of the country will continue to maintain the excess rains for this week and the rest of July.
Expected Precipitation accumulation till 23rd July:
• Maharashtra: 180mm
• Madhya Pradesh: 160mm
• Gujarat: 150mm
• Chhattisgarh: 120mm
East and North East India
The monsoon axis is south of its position since the early July, overall dry weather is observed across Bihar, Jharkhand and West Bengal since then, Rains overall are scanty and isolated in nature, the weather conditions are very tough due to high humidity and less rains in the region.
As the Synoptic conditions indicate the monsoon Axis is about to shift Northwards this week.
It will result in improvement in rainfall over West Bengal, Bihar and Jharkhand by 19th July but overall rainfall Intensity is expected to be moderate which will not bring any major recovery from rainfall deficiency in the region.
Overall a significant increase in rainfall will be observed in North East India, Moderate to heavy rains are expected in Meghalaya, Mizoram, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Sikkim, Manipur, Nagaland, and Tripura on certain days during 19 to 23 July.
An upcoming week is also likely to end with deficient rains in east India except for Odisha where Normal rains will be observed.
Expected precipitation accumulation till 23 July:
• Odisha -- 120mm
• North East India -- 100mm
• West Bengal -- 60mm
• Jharkhand -- 50mm
• Bihar -- 40mm
South India
Under the influence of the persistent low pressure area over Odisha heavy to very heavy rains are likely in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh till 19 July provoking the existing flood the situations in the states.
Due to the low pressure area pull effect the monsoon surge will remain active over the west coast and Ghat section, most parts of Karnataka and Kerala ghats including Goa to receive heavy rains.
Light to moderate rains will continue in the Interiors of Karnataka including Bengaluru along with that spread of rains is expected to increase in the interiors and coast Tamil Nadu including Chennai during 17 to 20 July.
Overall, normal rains are expected in the entire southern peninsula in the coming week.
Expected precipitation accumulation till 23 July:
• Goa -- 170mm
• Karnataka -- 140mm
• Telangana -- 110mm
• Andhra Pradesh -- 90mm
• Kerala -- 70mm
• Tamil Nadu -- 60mm
The active to vigorous monsoon conditions will persist in the country till 20th July with a very good quantum of rains falling in the period, July may end with an excess rain note for most parts of South, Central and West India whereas it may end on a normal note for North West India and deficient for East and North East India.
The author, better known as the Rohtak Weatherman, interprets and explains complex weather patterns. His impact-based forecasts @navdeepdahiya55 are very popular in north India.
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