The anti-cyclonic circulation which dominated north and central India for almost a month finally weakened this week, paving the way for Western Disturbances to appear over north India. On 13-14 April various parts of Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, and western Uttar Pradesh experienced the first dust storm of the summer season; somehow Delhi escaped the core dust storm and only dust-raising winds were observed in the capital. The spread of rainfall was less in this spell, but heatwave conditions have abated in the last three days as temperatures fall in north-west India.
Dust storms are known for strong winds. The following wind gust was reported from many stations of north-west India on 14 April:
• Moga 83.3kmph
• Barnala 77.7kmph
• Hisar AMFU 77.7kmph
• Kapurthala 70.3kmph
• Rauni 64.8kmph
• Kaul 64.8kmph
• Mohali 64.8kmph
• Bharatpur 61.1kmph
• Kurukshetra 59.2kmph
• Muktsar 57.4kmph
• Gurdaspur 55.5kmph
• Ujwa 55.5kmph
• Jind 55.5kmph
• Bathinda 50.0kmph
• Sangrur 50.0kmph
• Sadalpur 48.1kmph
• Alwar 46.3kmph
• Ropar 46.3kmph
• Delhi Airport 46.3kmph
• Balachaur 44.4kmph
• Hosiyarpur 44.4kmph
• Balsamand 44.4kmph
• Mahendragarh 44.4kmph
• Jafarpur 42.5kmph
• Tarn Taran 42.5kmph
• Chandigarh 42.5kmph
• Jaipur 42.5kmph
‘• Hathras 42.5kmph
• Nurmahal 40.7kmph
• Panchkula 40.7kmph
• Karnal 40.7kmph
• Baghpat 38.8kmph
• Amritsar 37.0kmph
• Karauli 37.0kmph
• Agra 37.0kmph
• Sirsa 35.1kmph
• Yamunanagar 35.1kmph
• Churu 35.1kmph
• Firozpur 33.3kmph
In the span of last one month, it was the first time that a Western disturbance impacted the western Himalayas from 12-15 April. On 15 April, Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh reported 21.5mm rainfall, light snowfall is observed at the higher reaches. Precipitation in the Himalayas restricted rising temperatures and also helped in controlling the wild/ forest fires.
India's North East continues to experience heavy pre-monsoon rains in the past week. The continuous flow of moisture-feeding Southerly winds from the Bay of Bengal has been responsible for a prolonged spell of rainfall in the North East. Cherrapunji recorded a total of 1716.1mm in the first 16 days of April itself, the monthly average rainfall is 846.7mm only.
Daily rainfall variation in Cherrapunji during the past week
9 April = 26.0mm
10 April = 14.4mm
11 April = 2.8mm
12 April = 39.2mm
13 April = 41.8mm
14 April = 169.8mm
15 April = 121.3mm
16 April = 86.8mm
Good pre-monsoon season is in progress over the southern peninsula. Under the influence of low-pressure areas in the Arabian sea and lower-level wind discontinuity, parts of Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Karnataka have been witnessing thunderstorms daily in the evening hours.
On 15 April Bengaluru IMD Observatory recorded 38mm rainfall in the period of 24 hours, the monthly average rainfall of the city is 41.5mm only.
Some other parts of Bengaluru urban also reported good rains ending 8:30 am on 15 April:
Sarakki 62mm
Doresanipalya 52mm
Anjanapura 49mm
Bilekahalli 45mm
Kumaraswamy Layout 36mm
Gottigere 30mm
Bommanahalli 44mm
Koramangala 40mm
Bellandur 40mm
Domlur 37mm
Varthur 34mm
Kadugodi 33mm
Marathahalli 30mm
Meanwhile, dry and hot weather conditions prevailed over Gujarat, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Bihar, and Jharkhand this week. As per the IMD data, the following is the total pre-monsoon rainfall in India between 1 March and 15 April:
• India as a whole recorded a total of 31.5mm rainfall against the average of 47.7mm, departure from normal Stands at -35 per cent.
• Southern peninsula: Actual 36.6mm against the average of 28.3mm, +29 per cent departure from normal.
• East & north-east India: Actual 132.1mm against the average of 116.4mm, +13 per cent departure from normal.
• North-west India: Actual 6.2mm against the average of 63.3mm, -90 per cent departure from normal.
• Central India: Actual 2.4mm against the average of 12.4mm, -81 percent departure from normal.
All-India weather forecast till 23 April
• Western Disturbances are expected to impact the Himalayas and plains of north India this week. As the weather system is supposed to be weaker one, they might not be very effective. Temperatures will rise early this week over north and central India. Parts of Rajasthan, south-west Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and the Vidarbha region of Maharashtra may experience near 45°C maximum temperatures and severe heatwave conditions will once again make a comeback over some stations. Parts of Haryana, Punjab, Delhi, Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh may record maximum temperature around 41-43°C and heatwave conditions will resume as temperatures anomaly are expected to be +4.5°c above normal.
• Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand will experience on and off scattered rainfall and thundershowers this week.
• Isolated places in Rajasthan, Punjab, and Haryana may see dust storm activities on 17, 19 and 21 April.
• Parts of Maharashtra, and Madhya Pradesh interiors may experience light to moderate pre-monsoon rains on 21-23 April.
• The prolonged spell of pre-monsoon rains will continue in North East India this week; the intensity of rains is expected to increase, specifically in stations of Meghalaya. As the incessant rains persist, the North East might observe the wettest April in recent decades.
• The low-pressure area in the Arabian Sea is not showing any significant movement. As a result of the lower-level Wind Discontinuity along with moisture-feeding winds, south India will remain wet all through this week. The region would witness strong winds and lightning activity along with below normal day temperatures.
Region-wise weather forecast till 23 April
North India
Significant Weather synopsis
• Three weak Western Disturbances in quick succession on 17, 19 and 21 April.
• Hot Westerly winds.
Under the influence of three Western Disturbances in quick succession, scattered moderate rainfall and thunderstorms are expected over Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand during this week. These weather activities will mainly occur in the afternoon to late evening hours, sometimes accompanied with strong wind gusts and hailstorms.
Heatwave conditions are in store for Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh early this week with maximum temperatures above 40°C at most stations in the plains. Under the influence of the weak weather systems, the region might experience unstable weather conditions. Afternoons may be hot but dust storms and isolated rains may occur in the region on 17, 19 and 21 April.
Overall above normal maximum temperature and near-normal minimum temperature will be recorded, rainfall is expected to be normal at the hills, while it will stay below normal in the plains.
Expected Minimum and Maximum Temperature Range Forecast till 23 April
• Punjab: 18 to 25.0°C, 37.0 to 42.0°C.
• Haryana: 19.0 to 26.0°C, 38.0 to 43.0°C.
• Rajasthan: 21.0 to 29.0°C, 40.0 to 45.0°C.
• Delhi-NCR: 21.0 to 26.0°C, 39.0 to 43.0°C.
• Uttar Pradesh: 22.0 to 28.0°C, 40.0 to 45.0°C.
East & North East India
Significant Weather synopsis
• Moisture-feeding Southern winds from the Bay of Bengal in the North East.
• Lower-level Wind Discontinuity over Odisha and West Bengal.
As a result of the mentioned weather features, most parts of the North East will have a very wet week ahead. Widespread heavy to very heavy rainfall is expected in Meghalaya along with isolated extremely heavy rainfall events.
Parts of Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Sikkim, Nagaland, Tripura, Manipur, Mizoram will receive fairly widespread light to moderate rainfall activities along with isolated heavy rains. Temperature is expected to stay 2-5°C below normal with relatively cool weather in the North East.
The Lower-level Wind Discontinuity will trigger some thunderstorm activities in sub-Himalayan West Bengal and south-east Odisha early this week.
Dry and hot weather is expected in north-west Odisha, Jharkhand and Bihar. Maximum temperatures are expected to be around 41-42°C in many stations and heatwave conditions will be observed.
Expected Minimum and Maximum Temperature Range Forecast till 23 April
• Bihar: 20 to 25.0°C, 37.0 to 41.0°C.
• Jharkhand: 22.0 to 29.0°C, 37.0 to 43.0°C.
• West Bengal: 23.0 to 28.0°C, 35.0 to 41.0°C.
•Odisha: 27.0 to 32.0°C, 38.0 to 44.0°C.
•North East India: 18.0 to 25.0°C, 25.0 to 31.0°C.
Central India
Significant Weather synopsis
• Dry northern winds early this week.
• Wind instability by mid-week till weekend.
Weather in Central India is expected to stay dry until 20 April. As day temperatures are expected to rise by 2-3°C, heatwave conditions will prevail in various parts of Gujarat, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh earlier this week. Most Stations in the region will record maximum temperature in the range of 40-45°C.
In view of wind instability under the influence of Western Disturbances over north India and Lower-level Wind Discontinuity in south India, in a long time, parts of Central India might experience rainfall on 21-23 April.
Patchy thunderstorms and gusty winds are expected in parts of Marathwada, Madhya Maharashtra, Vidarbha, south Madhya Pradesh and south Chhattisgarh later this week, though they may only bring temporary relief from heatwaves. Coastal Maharashtra/Konkan region including Mumbai and Gujarat will remain dry next week.
Expected Minimum and Maximum Temperature Range Forecast till 23 April
• Gujarat: 23.0 to 29.0°C, 40.0 to 45.0°C.
• Maharashtra: 21.0 to 28.0°C, 36.0 to 45.0°C.
• Madhya Pradesh: 22.0 to 28.0°C, 40.0 to 44.0°C.
• Chhattisgarh: 24.0 to 30.0°C, 40.0 to 45.0°C.
South India
Significant Weather synopsis
• Low-pressure area in the Arabian Sea near Lakshadweep.
• Moisture-feeding winds and Lower-level Wind Discontinuity in the southern peninsula.
The trend of the last two weeks is expected to continue in south India this week. The region will continue to experience above normal rainfall activities, specifically in parts of Kerala, south-west Tamil Nadu and Karnataka.
The convective clouds will develop daily in the late afternoon to evening hours leading to moderate to heavy intensity rainfall and thunderstorms in several areas. It will also help in restricting the rise in temperature over Kerala, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu.
Similar weather activities are also expected in the interiors of Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, north Karnataka and Goa, but the coverage of precipitation area will be less comparatively. The region will experience below normal maximum temperatures next week.
Expected Minimum and Maximum Temperature Range Forecast till 23 April
• Telangana: 23.0 to 31.0°C, 35.0 to 40.0°C.
• Andhra Pradesh: 25.0 to 32.0°C, 35.0 to 40.0°C.
•Goa: 26.0 to 28.0°C, 33.0 to 36.0°C.
• Karnataka: 21.0 to 26.0°C, 31.0 to 36.0°C.
• Tamil Nadu: 25.0 to 31.0°C, 32.0 to 37.0°C.
• Kerala: 22.0 to 25.0°C, 26.0 to 31.0°C.
The author, better known as the Rohtak Weatherman, interprets and explains complex weather patterns. His impact-based forecasts @navdeepdahiya55 are very popular in north India.
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