India's estimated cumulative excess deaths due to COVID-19 between January 2020 and December 2021 were the highest in the world at 4.07 million, around eight times higher than reported, according to a new analysis in the Lancet.
However, as per reports, this is eight times more than the number of COVID-19 deaths India has officially registered. Even now, the official toll is only 0.5 million.
The paper estimates excess mortality from the COVID-19 pandemic in 191 countries and territories from January 1, 2020, to December 31, 2021.
What does the paper say?
Although reported COVID-19 deaths between 1 January, 2020, and 31 December, 2021, totalled 5·94 million worldwide, the paper estimated that 18·2 million people died worldwide because of the COVID-19 pandemic over that period, the study noted
The Lancet reported on 10 March, 2022, that excess mortality rates due to COVID-19 among Indian states are not the highest in the world, because of India's large population, but the country accounted for around 223 per cent of global excess deaths as of 31 December, 2021.
According to the study, India had an estimated 152.5 excess deaths per 100 000 of the population over the study period. This was much higher than its reported COVID-19 mortality rate of 18·3 per 100 000 over the same period.
At the country level, the highest numbers of cumulative excess deaths due to COVID-19 were estimated in India (407 million [371-436]), the paper says.
After India, the highest numbers of cumulative excess deaths due to COVID-19 were estimated in the US (113 million), Russia (107 million), Mexico (798,000), Brazil (792,000), Indonesia (736,000) and Pakistan (664,000).
These seven countries accounted for more than half of the global excess deaths due to COVID-19 over the 24-month period, as per the report.
According to The Wire, the numbers of deaths per 1,00,000 population are influenced by the age distribution of the population, according to the World Health Organization.
In the study, eight states in India had mortality rates exceeding 200 deaths per one lakh people — a level only exceeded 50 other countries in the world. These states were Uttarakhand, Manipur, Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, and Karnataka.
The study also noted that states like Arunachal Pradesh, Telangana, Sikkim, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, West Bengal and Goa had excess mortality rates lower than the global average of 120·6 per one lakh people.
States like Bihar, Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra had excess deaths higher than South Africa (3,02,000), it added.
United States came a close second to India in terms of countries with excess COVID-19 deaths. The US accounted for 11.3 lakh excess deaths during the pandemic.
The full impact of the pandemic has been much greater than what is indicated by reported deaths due to COVID-19 alone, the paper, part-funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, notes in its interpretation of the latest findings.
India's response to the paper
Responding to the findings, the Union Health Ministry on Friday termed the analysis speculative and misinformed and said the authors had themselves admitted to several methodology flaws and inconsistencies.
The study takes into account different methodologies for different countries, the ministry said in a statement. For India, for example, data sources used by the study appear to have been taken from newspaper reports and non-peer-reviewed studies, it said.
This model uses data of all-cause excess mortality (created by another non-peer-reviewed model) as an input and this raises serious concerns about the accuracy of the results of this statistical exercise, the ministry said.
Quoting issues as sensitive as death, that too during an ongoing global public health crisis like pandemic COVID-19, should be dealt with facts and with required sensitivity, the ministry added.
"This type of speculative reporting has potential to create panic in the community, can misguide people and should be avoided," it said.
Last month, too, India dismissed previous reports of alleged under-reporting of COVID-19 deaths in the country, with the Health Ministry asserting that it has a robust mechanism in place.
Based on globally acceptable categorisation, the government of India has a comprehensive definition to classify COVID-19 deaths which have been shared with the states who are following it. Union Health Ministry has also regularly emphasised the need for a robust reporting mechanism for monitoring district-wise cases and deaths on a daily basis. Therefore, to project that COVID-19 deaths have been under-reported is without basis and devoid of justification, the ministry said in a statement last month.
With inputs from other agencies
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