Why 2022 Uttar Pradesh elections may mark the end of Mayawati’s illustrious political career

Political pundits appear to be surprised at BSP supremo Maywati’s low profile in the coming Assembly polls in her earlier bastion Uttar Pradesh. Yet for those who have followed her remarkable political career over the past several decades it had become palpable for quite some time now that Behenji was no longer a dominant factor in the politics of India’s most populous state. As a matter of fact, nearly five years ago in my third and final edition of her biography Behenji I had deliberately changed the sub-title from ‘The Political Biography of Mayawati’ to ‘The Rise and Fall of Mayawati’ despite the obvious risk of predicting the political obituary of someone who had in the early part of her career managed to overcome so many odds and setbacks.

My conviction that Mayawati and her Bahujan Samaj Party had reached a point of terminal decline was not merely influenced by her persistently poor electoral performances starting from the 2009 Lok Sabha polls that crushed her prime ministerial dreams, then losing the throne in Lucknow to Akhilesh Yadav of the Samajwadi Party in 2012, followed by the humiliation of not winning even a single seat in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls and barely five percent of the seats in the 2017 Assembly elections. What was more important than these successive bruising defeats was the fundamental change in the socio-political landscape of the state. Instead of reaping the advantage of her core Jatav voter base swelling considerably with the support of other social segments, Behenji like before now finds that even her own vote bank is fast dwindling.

The rise of the BSP in Uttar Pradesh masterfully strategised by its founder Kanshi Ram and fiercely implemented by his protégé Mayawati happened in the specific aftermath of former prime minister VP Singh’s Mandal Commission gambit that gave a new boost to backward caste identity politics in the 1990s. This simultaneously propelled both the Samajwadi Party and the BSP in Uttar Pradesh and the two joined hands to defeat the BJP despite the latter’s incendiary Ram Janambhoomi politics fresh after the demolition of the Babri Masjid and decimating the Congress as well.

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Realising the danger of the Samajwadi Party and its canny leader Mulayam Singh Yadav spreading their wings across Uttar Pradesh, the Brahmin elites of both the BJP and the Congress then in power at the Centre quickly struck back toppling the Samajwadi Party-BSP coalition government in Lucknow and installing Mayawati as the head of a minority government supported by both the BJP and Congress. Much against the wishes of local BJP leaders in the state, the Brahmin lobby in the party propped up three short-lived governments led by Mayawati, helping her to expand her base both among Brahmins and a whole slew of lower backward castes and non-Jatav Dalits.

In the 2007 state polls Behenji played her masterstroke that overnight turned her into the rising political star in the country. Using her now larger than life stature in the state to bag a majority on her stitching up a formidable alliance between Dalits and Brahmins, lower backward castes and a section of Muslims she was now poised to take over the national stage. However, it did not take long for her fortunes to go downhill. Brahmins were dissatisfied with not being allowed to run her government despite her close Brahmin aide Satish Mishra, the lower backward castes and non-Jatav Dalits felt that Maywati only favoured the Jatavs who in turn too feared that their interests were being constantly compromised.

The first indication that Maywati was in decline came in 2009 parliamentary polls when the BSP failed to get a sizeable number of seats to make a serious bid for power at the centre even as the Congress romped home to a comfortable majority.

This was followed by a comeback of the Samajwadi Party in the 2012 state Assembly elections. By the time the Modi juggernaut rolled around in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections the BSP had completely lost the confidence of the Brahmins and considerably eroded in lower backward caste and non-Jatav Dalit sections as well.

With her successive debacles in parliamentary and state polls in 2014 and 2017 Mayawati was increasingly cornered. Desperate to retrieve her position in the 2019 Lok Sabha she entered into an alliance with Akhilesh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party but although she herself gained by increasing her number of seats in Parliament from zero to 10, her ally got only half the number. Soon after she abruptly ended the alliance reportedly under pressure from Home Minister Amit Shah and since then there has been speculation that Behenji had sold out to the rulers of Delhi and Lucknow.

Mayawati herself has fuelled suspicions of a backroom deal with the BJP by being visibly inactive in Uttar Pradesh pointedly not intervening even in controversial atrocities on Dalits across the state apart from the occasional tweet. Her dogged refusal to jump into the poll fray on the plea of Covid appropriate behaviour is seen both as a tacit acknowledgement of her low expectations and playing along with the BJP. It remains to be seen whether a further downfall of Behenji will benefit the ruling party or its main opponent Samajwadi Party-RLD alliance.

The writer is a Delhi-based political analyst. Views expressed are personal.

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Budget 2022: Realtors seeks input tax credit under GST to boost housing segment

The real estate sector has been expecting a lot from budgets in the past 3-4 years. One of the most prominent asks and one that has been pending for a while is “industry” status for the sector. An announcement like this would of course be beneficial for all stakeholders and participants in the sector, for various reasons.

Therefore, like every year, this year too, almost all stakeholders including developers, home buyers, REITs, investment funds, corporate occupiers are looking forward to Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman’s Budget 2022 announcements, hoping for some positive changes/amendments that can impact the sector in a much needed, positive way.

Here are some of the key asks from across the real estate community:

Modification of the SEZ Act

A possible relook at the 2005 Act is much-needed after the government adopted the sunset clause and said that only those units that started production on or before June 30, 2020, would be granted a phased income tax holiday for 15 years. With the implementation of a sunset clause, the future development potential for SEZ is under the scanner. For obvious reasons, SEZ developers, as well as occupiers, are vociferously demanding a modification of some of the very stringent clauses of the Act like the inability to sell goods in the domestic market, accepting INR payments, replacing positive net foreign exchange (NFE) clause with some new criterion.

Housing loan-related tax incentives

A request for increasing the tax deduction limit on interest paid for home loans from the current Rs 2 lakh per annum (under section 24B) has been a long pending wish from home buyers before every Budget. There are multiple ways to provide this relief, including, increasing this limit to at least Rs 3 lakh per annum (under the same section), by providing separate tax deduction (outside of 80C) for principal repayments, or by letting the home buyer claim tax rebate on the entire interest amount paid. Either or all of these would reduce the cost of financing of units for home buyers, thereby giving a thrust to the housing demand, especially with the already attractive home loan interest rates being offered today.

Input Tax Credit for developers

The current GST rate applicable on under-construction residential units is 5 percent as well as GST on cement and steel is 28 percent and 18 percent respectively. With developers not allowed to claim Input Tax Credit (ITC) against these tax outflows, construction costs will continue to go with prices of these commodities only expected to increase. This tax incentive enforcement has also been long pending over the years and the developer community is hoping it gets addressed in this year’s Budget. This may be one of the major reforms given the large contribution of the housing segment to the overall market size of real estate in India.

Reduction in holding period of REITs for long-term capital gains

Currently, investments in REIT units turn long-term only on holding the investment for a minimum of 3 years as against a period of 12-months for investment in listed securities. To ensure a level playing field and thereby increase the retail participation in REITs, the government should consider reducing this holding period for REITs to 1 year immediately.

In case Budget 2022 can cater to some or all of these expectations from various stakeholders in the industry, the real estate sector can regain the much-required confidence and get the growth momentum that has been largely missing for the last 12-24 months.

The author is Partner and Head – Real Estate, Building and Construction, KPMG in India. Vies are personal.

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Budget 2022: Government should fast track Code on Social Security implementation to support gig workers

It’s that time of the year again: different industrial sectors are making Budget wish lists in the hope that the government will loosen its purse strings and provide an adequate impetus for growth. While infrastructure spending to boost the economy and increase employment is topmost on the minds of policymakers, the government should not overlook the need to focus on digital economy companies.

As India and the world look to loosen pandemic restrictions, the mobility sector will once again play a critical role in bringing growth back on track. As we move towards the new financial year, we are looking at a Union Budget that will give due importance to digital transformation and help sustain and create jobs and usher in investments, growth and economic momentum.

Implementation of the Code on Social Security to workers

The Code on Social Security (CoSS) passed by the Indian Parliament in 2020 marks India as one of the first countries to establish a framework for nationwide social security benefits and protections for gig and platform workers. It set a precedent by transforming what has been a binary choice between full-time and independent work. In light of the pandemic and the economic recovery process, we urge the Government to expedite the notification and implementation of the Code on Social Security (CoSS) to support gig workers. This will help provide timely support to workers with flexible work options aiding overall economic recovery.

Incentives and easy financing options

The pandemic has seen an accelerated shift towards digitisation of services, and the mobility sector is no different. With more people using their smartphones to get services, the ridesharing industry is poised for a sharp rebound. An incentives-driven strategy that enables easy access to financing and bank loans for vehicle purchase will not only support gig workers but also the auto industry. This will unlock economic opportunities for hundreds of thousands of platform workers.

Progressive EV policies

A sustainable mobility ecosystem needs to be shared, multimodal and electric. Mobility companies like Uber are a vital part of this picture. We are seeing that around the world people don’t switch to EV cars unless there is well-developed, accessible charging infrastructure. We must make sure that EV policies incentivise the development of charging infrastructure and don’t put impractical compliance demands on one side of the ecosystem, something which could crimp the overall growth of EVs in the country.

Level playing field for online auto rickshaws

In 2021, the government announced a levy of 5 percent GST on auto rides booked online. While we appreciate the need for the government to collect revenues, the newly announced tax has a direct impact on the earnings of auto drivers. This tax creates an uneven playing field between offline and online autos and goes against its vision of digitization of services, products, and payments. Reversing this GST will ensure riders, drivers and cities can keep benefiting from the growth in this nascent sector.

The writer is President, Uber India South Asia. Views are personal.

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Budget 2022: Bicycle Industry seeks ‘push package’ for growth

The COVID pandemic altered people's behaviour all over the world including India, resulting in a surge in demand for pedal and electric bicycles. As a result of the increase in health, green and sustainable consciousness, people were convinced/compelled to migrate to public transportation and fitness alternatives - which led to an increase in the number of people opting for bicycles.

Interestingly, bicycles are gaining vitalness world over by the global community, policymakers and multilateral institutions due to their incredible, inherent and indefinite benefits to cyclists, cities, counties and cosmos in terms of poverty alleviation; improving school dropouts; combating asthma/obesity/diabetes; redressing carbon footprints, traffic jams and rising noise levels; apart from providing affordable means of transport for a commute to the masses.

In India, currently, 20 million bicycles are made and sold. As India prepares for this year’s Union budget, we appeal to the visionary Central Government to consider “Cycling-Push package” as a part of the Budget to transform the Indian Bicycle industry @ 2.0 level and enable it to attain Atmanirbhar Industry level.

Challenges to industry

The bicycle industry is confronted with numerous challenges like material scarcity, premium component import - dependence, lack of cutting-edge technology, a higher GST, and a lack of safe cycling networks for pedal and electric bicycles are just a few of the issues plaguing the industry.

Furthermore, due to a lack of testing and R&D facilities for Pedal and Electric Bicycles, manufacturers are compelled to send them to say Hong Kong to meet the testing requirements of the European and UK markets. As a result, the overall cost of a bicycle increases.

On the other hand, Chinese bicycles currently cost 15 percent less than Indian bicycles due to inherent advantages (such as lower capital costs, freight subsidies, and energy costs). Even the average value addition of Chinese bicycles are three times more than Indian bicycles. This has a direct impact on Indian export markets and import substitution.

China dominates the majority of supplies in high-end bicycles and premium components to Europe, the United States, Latin America, the Middle East, and Africa (LAMEA). However, COVID-19 has forced them to halt imports, and with government support and favourable policies, India can easily tap into these markets.

Per capita bicycle penetration is merely 9 percent (as against the international benchmark of 110 percent in the Netherlands). As per TERI Study, merely 50 percent substitution from 2W and 4W to bicycles within the distance of 8 Kms can bring a total annual benefit of Rs 1.8 trillion (1.6 percent of India’s annual GDP).

As per the last censes, 48 percent of the rural population walk to work for 2-10 km distance as most of them can’t afford the upfront purchase of a Bicycle. Hence, seamless micro-financing schemes for Pedal and Electric Bicycles are the need of the hour.

The Bicycle industry is fully geared up to take up the challenges and prepare for much-awaited localization through aggregate demand and a long-term contract approach to overcome scale, quality, cost, viability. It, however, definitely requires initial push supports from the Central Government.

Cycling-push package

Bicycles are evergreen, ever-evolving and ever wondering products with promising future demands and hence a paradigm shift in the manufacturing class among scale is the dire need of the industry. Therefore, a one-time package to the Indian bicycle sector would enable the sector to register revolutionary growth (instead of prevailing evolutionary growth) and embark @ 2.0 level of hi - end bicycle era. This would eventually make India truly Atmanirbhar in premium Bicycles and E-bicycles. The package inter-alia includes the components.

A.PLI, FAME-II& testing and R&D world-class /scale Bicycle manufacturing

The manufacturing goal as per KPMG report is to position the Indian Bicycle sector @ 2.0 level while achieving 3x growth by 2030 (i.e., $3.51 billion) in high value-added bicycles - premium pedal and electric.

Apart from generating employment @ 3.3 per 100 bicycles in the supply chain, additional Govt revenue and stimulating boom in allied services.  In order to realise this goal, the industry seeks:

1. Localization of around 25 critical imported parts (mechanical and electrical) having world-class quality and competitive cost for import substitution, exports and the domestic market is a prerequisite. For this, transfer of state-of-the-art process and product technologies are a must and hence for bridging the viability–gap, PLI support is necessitated under DPIIT.
2. FAME-II: Inclusion of E- Bicycle in FAME -II scheme of Department of Heavy Industry, GOI for faster adoption of E-Bicycle to augment in lowering the cost, creation of demand and pushing Global E-Bicycle Supply chain.
3. Common testing and R&D facilities
4. Setting up of an advanced cycle technology centre  in Ludhiana (like ARAI Pune for automobile ) with funds from Ministry of MSME schemes is needed to complement R, D &D; testing and certification; capacity building; incubation /start-ups; and so on.

Rationalise GST to 5% with IT

Locally, the government should consider lowering the GST from the current 12 percent, especially on low-cost bicycles. Lowering it to 5 percent with ITC could make them more affordable to a wider range of consumers, particularly for the rural and urban poor base, where demand has slowed in recent months. Increasing bicycle usage through policy initiatives such as GST rationalisation for socio-economic benefits will boost micro-mobility, small earnings and ease of life to the underprivileged class.

The author is Chairman and Managing Director, HMC, a Hero Motors Company. Views are personal.

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Budget 2022: Opportunity for government to set strong technological foundation for education, skilling landscape

Over the past two years, all stakeholders of the education sector have been impacted since the onset of the pandemic. The last two Budgets have spoken about the reforms required by the sector. The main expectation from Union Budget 2022 is for a concrete execution plan for various elements of the New Education Policy (NEP), Skill India Initiate, and for the immediate challenges faced by the sector to be addressed.

While the New Education Policy provided a long-awaited framework for online learning and assessments, there is now a need to strengthen and elaborate the policy for implementation at the grass-roots level and provide the necessary budgetary allocation to support in terms of quality education as well as infrastructure.

Execution plan for skill development

An execution plan for the Rs 3,000 crore which was earmarked for skill development and benchmarking assessments is also awaited. This will boost the job market through effective corporate assessments and hiring, especially for the job roles most impacted during the pandemic.

The COVID-19 experience has led to a paradigm shift in promoting the holistic development of human resources for improving outcomes and raising productivity, rather than only boosting specific skillsets. In this regard, more focus needs to be laid on the Skill India Mission launched in 2015 to ensure that the world’s to-be largest working-age population is trained to be productive across industries and help boost the country’s economy.

More action awaited on teacher skilling, assessments

The initial drafts for the National Professional Standards for Teachers have been encouraging. It will be wonderful to see more action in this space with respect to teacher skilling and assessments.  This can greatly help bridge the shortfall of quality teachers within the country across the spectrum while maintaining consistency in delivering quality education across the length and breadth of the country.

The plan for National Testing Academy to offer biannual high-quality common, as well as specialised aptitude tests, needs to ensure that the rubber meets the road soon. The setting up of a National Recruitment Agency (NRA) for a common entrance test for all non-gazetted posts is a positive step for the job-seeking youth of the country. We look forward to scaling up these NRA tests starting in 2022.

Technology will play a key role in the efficient and effective conduct of these examinations through modern proctoring capabilities. Assessment platforms have evolved significantly over the past two years to provide best-in-class learner experience and proctoring capabilities.

Partnerships between formal education institutes, tech partners

The revamped assessment systems for school students incorporating modern pedagogy and tools are slated to be initiated this year, and we are excited about the possibilities that it will open up. This will initiate deep partnerships between formal education institutes and technology partners for a synergised play of delivering quality education and benchmarking assessments within the country.

The right steps and measures from this year’s Budget will go a long way in setting a strong technological foundation for the education and skilling landscape of India.

The author is CEO, MeritTrac Services. Views are personal.

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Budget 2022: Discouraging crypto assets will wipe out emerging investing classes, impact blockchain innovations

Crypto adoption in India has grown due to various national and global macroeconomic developments. Millennials and Gen Z are increasingly investing in this new digital asset, with the average age of a crypto investor being less than 28 years. It is no surprise then that India was ranked second in the Global Crypto Adoption Index by Chainalysis in August 2021.

India’s demographic is not only young but also tech-savvy — a foundation laid, in part, by the government’s Digital India initiative equipping younger generations with technological know-how that makes them future-ready for a digital age, characterized by digital assets, blockchain technology, and Web 3.0. There is an unmatched growing pool of talent interested in working with blockchain technology — the technology that powers crypto assets — and driving innovation in crypto and Web 3.0 in India. It is crucial to tap into this emerging workforce and engage them.

Regulatory vacuum

Despite the growing popularity of crypto assets and blockchain technology, the industry currently exists in a regulatory vacuum. In the absence of regulations, leading crypto exchanges today follow self-regulatory practices to ensure customer protection and operate in the best interest of all industry stakeholders. The industry is investing heavily to create awareness about the asset class, with an emphasis on the importance of doing one’s own research before investing. The idea is to build an informed and prosperous crypto ecosystem.

We were hoping for regulatory clarity when the crypto bill was set to be tabled in the winter session of the parliament. However, we support the government’s desire to take more time to have a deeper understanding of this new space. India is one of the few economies that is taking measures to standardise best practices in order to address misconceptions around this emerging asset class. A regularised environment born out of a progressive regulatory framework will encourage more Indians to start their crypto investing journey, promote financial inclusion in line with the government's vision and encourage new technology startups to build world-class products from India

Let’s not miss out on Web 3.0 wave

India missed out on the technological revolutions brought on by Web 1.0 and Web 2.0 that gave rise to giants like Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Facebook. We cannot afford to miss out on the Web 3.0 wave. Discouraging crypto assets will not only wipe out the emerging investing class but will also grossly impact all crypto and blockchain innovations and set us back as a nation.

Indian entrepreneurs who want to build companies on blockchain will have to explore international prospects that will support their ambitions and that can lead to another round of brain drain. India has the potential to become the global leader in Web 3.0 that is a net exporter of technology, instead of a net importer. The next Google or Amazon might be built on blockchain and can emerge from India.

Clarity on taxation

Even as we wait for a comprehensive regulatory framework, from the upcoming Budget, we are hoping for clarity on taxation. This can greatly benefit the growing industry and in turn the exchequer.

Over the years, crypto has become a trillion-dollar industry that furthers the benefits of a safe, secure, and transparent digital economy to society at large. This evolution needs to be acknowledged. We hope crypto is categorized as an asset class that has the potential to open many doors to industry-first innovations and global technological leadership.

The author is Chief Business Officer, CoinSwitch Kuber-cryptocurrency exchange. Views are personal.

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Budget 2022: Will Nirmala Sitharaman provide much-needed booster dose to economy?

As India battles the prevailing third wave of the pandemic and its resultant strain on the economy, India Inc. expects the agenda for Union Budget 2022 to be dictated by measures to boost economic recovery and growth. Such policy-level measures are also anticipated as the government strives to achieve its ambitious goal of turning India into a $5 trillion economy by 2025. The growth of the domestic industry will be an essential chapter in that story.

Rationalise customs tariffs

A key facet of the roadmap for imparting thrust to domestic manufacturing and growth is rationalisation of customs tariffs. Against the above backdrop, one may recall that in the previous Budget, the government had already announced its intention to relook at the customs exemptions – a result of which around 80 exemptions were withdrawn. Further rationalization of customs exemptions is expected in this Budget.

In non-tariff changes, procedural relaxations are expected in Customs (Administration of Rules of Origin under Trade Agreements) Rules and Manufacture and Other Operations in Warehouse Regulations, to improve ease of doing business in India.

More PLI schemes announcement likely

The government’s vision of ambitious economic growth through an ‘Atmanirbhar Bharat’ needed a radical policy and Production Linked Incentive Schemes (PLI) is exactly that. It is the government’s key initiative to attract investments and boost manufacturing. And in her own words, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman called PLI schemes a ‘game changer’. The FM was always bullish on it, evident from the lavish outlay of Rs 1.97 lakh crores across 13 sectors set aside for PLI schemes. Expectations are that the PLI schemes alone can trigger Rs 2.5-3.0 lakh crore of capital expenditure, generate Rs 35-40 lakh crore of incremental revenue, and add around one crore jobs in the next five years. In fact, the government estimates indicate that introduction of PLI schemes alone would help us to grow our GDP to over $ 500 billion in five years.

PLI schemes have seen great participation from the industry as well. PLI schemes for IT hardware, mobile phones, drugs, and medical devices have already lured investments of over $30 billion. After seeing such a positive response to these schemes, the ambit was expanded to sectors such as automobiles, white goods, food, textile, and specialty steel. Given the success of the scheme, one can expect the announcement of PLI schemes for a few more sectors such as chemical, footwear, leather, renewable energy.

Continuation of COVID relief measures expected

In the past, the government has also taken other steps to aid India Inc by announcing COVID relief measures around compliances. These include a reduced interest on delayed payment of taxes, rationalisation of late fees regime, and relaxation around GST reconciliation (GST 9C). With its continued commitment and focus on ease of doing business, the industry is hopeful of additional relief measures such as allowing revision of GSTR 3B and relaxation of timeline for taking adjustments w.r.t issuance of credit notes, and availing input credit for the previous year - as per current law, the timeline for both filing of return for September.

Clarity on double taxation of ocean freight

The industry would also welcome clarity on some contentious issues, viz. double taxation of ocean freight - either by taxing such freight as goods (as part of Customs duty) or as a service, taxable under reverse charge under GST. Double taxation of ocean freight has been a bone of contention between industry and tax authorities, resulting in unnecessary litigation and cost to industry as well as government machinery.

ITC for CSR, other expenses incurred due to COVID?

Another aspect that should be clarified is on the admissibility of ITC for CSR and other expenses incurred on account of the pandemic, as the industry is of the view that such expenses are incurred in course of business and are mandated by the law.

The pivotal role played by technology in tax administration, is more evident now, i.e. in life 'after COVID-19' than it has ever been. To further strengthen the move towards automation and ease of doing business, the government should consider measures to reduce personnel visits for assessments or audit purposes. Faceless assessments and audits under GST, like in income tax, could be one such measure.

Technical improvements and changes in the indirect tax regime have necessitated reform of SEZ law, which was implemented 15 years ago. The Commerce Secretary recently stated that key revisions to SEZ policy are being examined for simplification of procedural, compliance aspects and alignment with GST law. Some of the expected measures include ease in compliances, lower custom duty on clearing goods into DTA, relaxation in NFE norms, accepting INR remittances, etc.

In conclusion, the Government of India is expected to provide a booster dose to the Indian economy by announcing the much-desired policy and rational measures through the upcoming Budget.

Achal Chawla is Tax Partner, EY; Divya Bhushan and Rachit Suri, senior tax professionals with EY have also contributed to this article. Views expressed are personal.

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